Saturday shapes up as absolute cracker of a day for football, two games between teams with top four aspirations, two old rivals go head to head, can the crows keep their brilliant start to the season going in trying conditions in Tassie and The little master Ablett up against the Cats licking their wounds after their first loss.
Adelaide v North Melbourne
Do the Crows get win number seven or now that the Kangas have tasted victory can they cause the upset of the season and take down the leagues heavy weight. On paper the Crows win this with out too much trouble but with the expected heavy rain the total point expected for this game has moved in from 199 to 176.
Will this be enough to stop the Crows juggernaut, they are number 1 in accuracy in front of goal and lead the league with an average of 20 goals a game compared to the Kangaroos 13 a game. The crows use the handball and run game better than anyone and if it is wet weather footy this may test them a little, they are supreme by foot and may find a small reduction in output across the board but the Kangaroos would need a huge lift from where they are. Statistically they are behind the Crows in every aspect of the game, North just don’t have enough winners across the ground to keep with the Crows for four quarters. North will match Crows running early but the Crows relentless pressure will eventually pick North apart.
Predict Crows win 33 points
Bet tip Crows 2nd half handicap -17.5
Collingwood v Carlton
This games doesn’t have a lot to offer except pride between the bitter rivals, both sides will not be competing in finals and with Collingwood win over Geelong last week the pressure has eased on the coach, imagine if Pies has lost to Geelong then lost to Carlton this week if would be over for Buckley.
Both sides had good wins last week and will want to make it back to back wins, both sides have played tough gritty football and expect this to be a real slog.
Collingwood’s inaccuracy in front of goal was much better last week but will be an issue that will surely rear its ugly head again. Carlton is intriguing besides the port flogging they have kept it pretty tight for the most part of games. Collingwood are a step above the Blues but it doesn’t mean much when the teams take to the ground both will be hoping for a win both have a good chance to get the win. If Collingwood kick straight they win by a few goals but if they don’t they leave the door open for a Carlton side that are growing in belief then they will steal this win.
Predict Magpies win 23 points
Bet tip Collingwood 1-39 $2.00
Port Adelaide v West Coast
This will be the match of the round in Adelaide with the Power at home and a chance for both sides to sneak into the top 4 ahead of Richmond is they lose. The next couple weeks will shape both these clubs seasons the Eagles with 2 home games but against the Dogs and Giants mixed in with an away game against the Bombers if they drop this week against the Power it puts right back in the chasing pack with a tough draw ahead.
The Power on the other hand have a hectic travel to China followed by a week off before facing the Cats, a win here gives them a a little buffer with the big unknown about travelling overseas for their next game.
The Power has been a bit more wasteful in front of goal than previous years but are still averaging over 17 goals a game. The Eagles have improved in front of goal and rate in the top half of the league but have had a few errant quarters where the yips get them.
The battle of the mid field will be intense and it will be who gets on top here to give their forwards first use that will win, these sides match up very well one on one and should be a tight contest if the Eagles travel woes stay away.
Predict Power win 19 points
Bet tip Power 1st 1/4 line $1.92